Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate, Impact Study for India
Cities Forum drafted an outline of a proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate for India and assessed its likely impact on electric-vehicle adoption, for the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).
Year: 2023–2024 | Client: Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) | Country: India
Cities Forum drafted an outline of a proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate for India and assessed its likely impact on electric-vehicle adoption, for the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). ZEV mandates, which require manufacturers to sell a rising share of zero-emission vehicles, have proven among the most powerful policy levers for accelerating EV markets internationally, but their design and consequences must be carefully analysed before they are adopted in a market as large and distinctive as India's. The study set out to inform that debate with rigorous, quantitative evidence.
Our approach
The assignment combined policy design with analytical modelling. Cities Forum undertook a policy review of ZEV mandates and comparable instruments, distilling international experience into design options suited to the Indian context, and outlined how such a mandate might be structured. This was paired with EV demand forecasting using Discrete Choice Modelling, a robust technique that captures how buyers trade off price, range, charging availability and other attributes, allowing the team to estimate how a mandate could shift adoption trajectories under different design choices and market conditions.
What we delivered
Crucially, the study also assessed the implications of a mandate for the actors most affected: original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the Government. For industry, the analysis considered how a ZEV requirement would reshape product strategies, investment and competitiveness; for the Government, it weighed the policy's effectiveness in accelerating EV uptake against its economic and industrial consequences. This balanced treatment, quantifying the upside for EV adoption while being honest about the impacts on the vehicle industry, is what makes such analysis genuinely useful to policymakers weighing a consequential decision.
Impact
The study gave CSE and Indian policymakers a structured, evidence-based assessment of whether and how a ZEV mandate could accelerate electric-vehicle adoption, and at what cost and benefit to industry and the state. For Cities Forum, it demonstrated a capability that complements its implementation work: rigorous, model-based policy analysis at the frontier of transport decarbonisation, helping shape the regulatory instruments that will determine the pace of India's shift to electric mobility.
